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Sondages : la fin de l’omerta ?

Fin de l’omerta ? La banquise des sondeurs français est-elle en train de se fissurer ?

(…)

Sous la menace du vote d’une loi leur imposant davantage de transparence, et redoutant d’être atteints par le discrédit qui frappe leur confrère Harris interactive, après son sondage controversé donnant Marine Le Pen en tête au premier tour, les sondeurs brisent spectaculairement la « connivence » (le mot est de l’un d’entre eux) qu’ils opposaient jusqu’à présent à toutes les critiques extérieures. L’un de nos invités, Edouard Lecerf (TNS Sofres) a prononcé les mots « d’incompétence » ou « d’irresponsabilité » à l’encontre de Harris interactive. Il s’en explique sur notre plateau. Jérôme Sainte-Marie (CSA) n’est pas plus tendre. Et c’est Matthieu Chaigne, co-fondateur de Délits d’opinion, un site proche de l’univers des sondeurs, qui monte au front pour défendre Harris.

Certes, nos deux invités sondeurs s’affirment toujours opposés au vote de la loi actuellement en souffrance à l’Assemblée (au contraire de notre troisième invité…). Mais la franchise de leur réprobation à l’encontre de leur confrère Jean-Daniel Lévy (qui n’a pas donné suite à notre invitation) montre bien qu’ils sont conscients qu’une certaine transparence est désormais inévitable. Exemple: même s’ils se refusent toujours à dévoiler les scores bruts « très élevés » de Marine Le Pen, ils ne seraient plus tout à fait opposés à les dévoiler… après un délai d’une quinzaine de jours. Au passage, un joli scoop: en 2002 et 2007, les scores « bruts » de Jean-Marie Le Pen étaient quasiment identiques (7%). Dans un cas, son score final a été de 16,86%. Dans le second cas, de 10,44%. Ce qui montre bien l’extrême difficulté du métier.

L’émission est animée préparée par Dan Israel et déco-réalisée par François Rose.



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RÉCLAMATIONS (111)

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  • Pat dit :

    Passionnant !

    Concernant les rémunérations et « incentives » des sondés, j’aimerais savoir si les instituts ont réalisé des enquêtes pour déterminer le biais éventuel selon que le sondé est ou non « incentivé » : cela me paraît être une dimension importante dans la démarche d’ajustement des résultats bruts.

    Il s’agit, je pense, d’un comportement qui mérite un peu d’attention : des personnes se refusent à participer à un sondage s’il y a un gain – même peu probable – à la clé; pour d’autres, seule la perspective d’un gain peut justifier leur participation. Et il y a probablement des « indifférents », des « pourquoi pas », d’autres encore…

    E. Lecerf et J.Sainte-Marie ont-ils réalisé ce type d’étude ?

  • Pat dit :

    Hors-sujet (2)

    Khadafi doit partir (dixit la communauté internationale… heu, c’est qui, au fait ? Sarkozy ? Obama ? La ligue arabe ?…?)

    Il va rester : http://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2011/03/14/les-forces-de-kadhafi-progressent-vers-l-est-la-communaute-internationale-tergiverse_1492584_3212.html#ens_id=1481986

    Business is business !
    And the show must go on 🙁

  • martingrall dit :

    C’est marrant tous ces gens s’affolant de leurs délits, fautes et crimes, alors que le sondage reste ce qu’il est et ce pourquoi il a toujours été. « Influenceur »
    C’est à dire contraire à la démocratie.
    Alors ce n’est pas vrai marine le pen ne vaut pas 23% c’est sur mais combien? Alors que D.S.K lui vaut bien plus que ces, leurs, ses 27%! Quoique, bien moins est plus dans les intentions de vote de mon sondage à moi, ma rue. Comme le pen grimpe bien au-delà et va grimper le long du haricot magique et atteindre le sommet.
    Ces sondages, mettent ne évidence la réalité politique.
    Jean-françois Copé(lovici) devient le chef de l’extrême droite française avouée et assumée. J’aime. C’est bien d’avouer ce que l’on est, et va finir avec les 3 à 5% d’électeurs d’extrême droite française. Et marine le pen devenue « Droite nationaliste » par la politique extrême droite suivie l’U.M.P.S pour Sarkozy et pour Socialiste pas des sondages, récupère bien évidemment la majorité des électeurs. ce qui fait le pen ce ne sont pas les sondages, ni leurs commanditaires, mais la politique, surtout son absence, suivie par l’U.M.P.S. Et à un an des élections, le temps manquera pour définir un autre parti de droite, réinstallant marine le pen dans son extrême, et de redéfinir un autre parti de gauche reléguant le Parti.Socialiste dans cette même droite extrême.
    Reste que c’est très marrant ces sondeurs tout sondés.
    Et ça doit pas être marrant de se retrouver avec des potes d’extrême droite.

  • Les enfumées

    Êtes-vous pour ou contre qu’on vous prenne pour un con ?
    Le sondage, ce n’est pas une opinion qu’on fige, mais une escroquerie de haute voltige,
    qui se substitue à moi pour élire, compter et opiner…
    Je préfère encore me shooter à l’héro matin, midi et soir, avorter ce que je devrais enfanter,
    renoncer à ma féminité que d’avoir l’illusion de penser quelque chose que je n’aurais jamais pensé,
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    Je préfère encore y laisser ma peau plutôt que de répondre à la requête d’un collabo.
    Si le pouvoir avait le pouvoir… Il interdirait tout sondage d’opinion !

    http://www.lejournaldepersonne.com/2011/03/enfumees/

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